{"id":32479,"date":"2010-01-07T05:00:00","date_gmt":"2010-01-07T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.yorku.ca\/researchdev\/2010\/01\/07\/math-prof-receives-grant-to-study-west-nile-virus-and-global-warming-2\/"},"modified":"2025-01-29T14:51:34","modified_gmt":"2025-01-29T19:51:34","slug":"math-prof-receives-grant-to-study-west-nile-virus-and-global-warming-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.yorku.ca\/research\/2010\/01\/07\/math-prof-receives-grant-to-study-west-nile-virus-and-global-warming-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Math prof receives grant to study West Nile virus and global warming"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>York math Professor Huaiping Zhu is working on understanding why there are outbreaks of the West Nile virus some years and not others. What goes into the mix \u2013 temperature, precipitation, mosquito population \u2013 to trigger the exact conditions needed for the virus to thrive?<\/p>\n<p>Knowing the answer could help in the development of mosquito density and control strategies\u00a0as well as\u00a0improvements to the current surveillance system for West Nile virus and other vector-borne diseases that may emerge, not only in Ontario, but across the country. It could also lead to a real-time warning system and better disease management by public health agencies.<\/p>\n<p>Recently awarded a $100,000 research grant from the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC), Zhu will conduct a two-year research project, \"Modeling and Risk Assessment of West Nile Virus Transmission Under Global Warming\", as part of PHAC\u2019s Pilot Infectious Disease Impact &amp; Response Systems Program and its Clean Air Agenda. The objective is to conduct data mining and analysis, develop models for expected mosquito density given certain meteorological and environmental conditions, and\u00a0establish a set of threshold conditions and criteria that are likely to be present before and during an outbreak.<\/p>\n<p><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.yorku.ca\/yfile\/photos\/20091215\/hzhu2.jpg\" alt=\"\" hspace=\"8\" vspace=\"8\" width=\"300\" height=\"254\" align=\"left\" \/>Left: Huaiping Zhu<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201cPart of the pilot project is related to seeing how climate change will affect the virus in Ontario,\u201d says <a href=\"http:\/\/www.math.yorku.ca\/~huaiping\/\">Zhu<\/a>, a professor in York\u2019s Department of Mathematics &amp; Statistics. Warmer weather makes a more conducive environment for mosquito breeding and virus incubation, and that holds true for other vectors as well. With global warming, mosquitoes are likely to expand their range and spread the virus into new areas.<\/p>\n<p>In Ontario, there have been two outbreaks of the West Nile virus \u2013\u00a0one in 2003 and another in 2007. The curious thing about those two outbreaks, says Zhu, is \u201cwe didn\u2019t have the maximum amount of mosquitoes in those years.\u201d It seems counterintuitive that the outbreaks would occur during times when mosquitoes were not at peak levels. That, he says, may indicate that temperature and precipitation play a larger role in driving the spread of the disease than previously thought.<\/p>\n<p>Zhu has the West Nile virus incidence data from the Ministry of Health &amp; Long Term Care, the study\u2019s collaborator, as well as the data on the temperature and amount of precipitation in Peel Region in Ontario since 2002. The first case of West Nile virus appeared in Ontario in 2001, with surveillance data collecting beginning the following year. With the data, Zhu and his research team can create models to assess the most likely scenario of\u00a0when incidents of West Nile virus will surge. Once they have an idea of what is happening in Peel Region, they hope to expand the research to all of Ontario and eventually Canada. Part of the difficulty will be the narrow time\u00a0frame Zhu has to work with each year \u2013\u00a016 weeks when mosquitoes are active in Ontario.<\/p>\n<p>The preparation of the data has already been done using York\u2019s Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems (LAMPS) as part of Zhu\u2019s 2007 Ministry of Research &amp; Innovation <a href=\"http:\/\/www.mri.gov.on.ca\/english\/news\/Era081307_gta_bd.asp\">Early Researcher Award<\/a> research project, \"Modeling, Surveillance, Prediction and Control of West Nile Virus in Ontario\". LAMPS is a high-power parallel computing lab in the Department of Mathematics &amp; Statistics, which Zhu, along with York Professors Steven Wang and Zijiang Yang, set up using a $250,045 grant from the Canada Foundation for Innovation and a matching grant from the Ontario Innovation Trust.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.yorku.ca\/yfile\/photos\/20091215\/Mosquitobiting(1).jpg\" alt=\"\" hspace=\"8\" vspace=\"8\" width=\"300\" height=\"202\" align=\"right\" \/>Zhu\u00a0now needs to design models to plug the data into, which will hopefully tell him more about how the virus is spread to birds and the optimum temperature and amount of precipitation needed for an outbreak to occur. Another, part of the equation is mosquito reproduction and how that fluctuates with the weather. Then the information will need to be analyzed.<\/p>\n<p>The whole idea, says Zhu, is to discover \u201cwhat are the conditions that are needed to cause the West Nile virus.\u201d To do this, it\u2019s imperative to understand how the climate influences the host. \u201cOnly when this is clear, can we go on from there,\u201d he says. Then they can begin to understand some of the other variables, such as how different landscapes affect mosquitoes across the country, what their preferred habitat is and whether it is true for all species of mosquito, and how\u00a0the rate of evaporation plays into the equations.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFor that part it is more complicated,\u201d says Zhu. \u201cSo depending on the results from the first part, we will know if it will be possible to develop it into a larger project taking into account those other factors.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Although West Nile virus was first isolated in Uganda in 1937, it has progressively spread to Egypt, Israel, South Africa, Europe and North America.<\/p>\n<p><em>By Sandra McLean, YFile writer<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Reprinted courtesy of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.yorku.ca\/yfile\">YFile<\/a>, ¿ì²¥ÊÓƵ\u2019s  daily e-bulletin.<br \/>\n<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>York math Professor Huaiping Zhu is working on understanding why there are outbreaks of the West Nile virus some years and not others. What goes into the mix \u2013 temperature, precipitation, mosquito population \u2013 to trigger the exact conditions needed for the virus to thrive? Knowing the answer could help in the development of mosquito [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_kad_blocks_custom_css":"","_kad_blocks_head_custom_js":"","_kad_blocks_body_custom_js":"","_kad_blocks_footer_custom_js":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[58,39],"tags":[461,462,463,464,465,466,467,468,469,470,471],"class_list":["post-32479","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-health-research","category-news","tag-canada-foundation-for-innovation","tag-department-of-mathematics-statistics","tag-early-researcher-award","tag-huaiping-zhu","tag-ministry-of-research-innovation","tag-mosquitos","tag-ontario-innovation-trust","tag-ontario-ministry-of-health-long-term-care","tag-outbreaks","tag-public-health-agency-of-canada","tag-west-nile-virus"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Math prof receives grant to study West Nile virus and global warming | Research &amp; Innovation<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"For immediate release: Math prof receives grant to study West Nile virus and global warming. 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